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Causal Attribution

Build a model that tells you exactly what your ads are worth

Causal models that link ad spend directly to revenue and profit — not correlation, not last-click. Built for e-commerce, DTC, and retail teams who need to justify every dollar.

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Investment:$5,000 – $15,000
3–4 weeks
Build timeline
Causal
Inference methodology
Monthly
Model update protocol
Deliverables

What you get

Custom causal ROI model connecting ad spend to revenue and margin
Channel-by-channel revenue attribution with confidence intervals
Scenario planning model (increase/decrease spend by X%)
Executive summary dashboard with key ROI metrics
Monthly model recalibration protocol
Interpretation guide for your internal team
Investment
$5,000 – $15,000
Fixed project scope
Timeline
3–4 weeks
Book a Consultation
Process

How it works

01

Data Integration

We pull spend data from every active channel and connect it to revenue outcomes at the right granularity — daily, weekly, or campaign level depending on your data maturity.

02

Causal Model Build

We construct a causal model — not a correlation — using methods like Bayesian structural time-series or difference-in-differences depending on your data.

03

Calibration & Validation

We back-test the model against periods where we know the outcome, then stress-test the assumptions before presenting results.

04

Handover & Training

We deliver the model, dashboard, and a training session so your team can run scenarios and update inputs as conditions change.

Ideal Client

This service is for you if…

E-commerce brands spending $50K+ per month across channels who need to justify budget
DTC companies preparing for board presentations or investor reviews
Retail businesses wanting to compare digital vs in-store ad effectiveness
CMOs who've been burned by last-click attribution and want something rigorous

What clients see

2.3×

Average ROAS improvement

Clients who reallocate budget based on the model typically see material ROAS improvement within 90 days.

35%

CAC reduction potential

Identifying which channels are truly incremental allows brands to stop funding non-incremental spend.

Common questions

How is this different from what Meta or Google tells me?

Platform-reported ROAS is based on their own attribution models, which naturally credit their platforms generously. Our models are platform-agnostic and use your own outcome data.

What sample size do I need?

Typically 6+ months of daily spend and revenue data across the channels you want to model. Less is possible with certain methodologies.

Do I need a data engineer for this?

No. We handle data extraction and cleaning. If you can give us export access to your ad accounts and revenue data, we can do the rest.

Currently accepting new clients

Ready to prove your marketing ROI?

Book a free 30-minute consultation. No commitment, just 30 minutes of clarity on what's actually driving your results.

Book Free Consultation

No commitment. Just 30 minutes of clarity.